Sports modelling in a nutshell: from market efficiency to probabilistic modelling

It is the 90th minute of the Champions League Final and Bayern Munich leads Manchester United by 1-0. What is the probability Manchester United wins the trophy? Answering this question in a quantitative manner poses a variety of challenges spanning multiple scientific fields such as probabilistic modelling, finance, statistics, and model evaluation, just to name a few. A proper answer to this question has a significant impact on a variety of applications in the world of sport analytics. In this talk we provide an overview on the problem of quantitatively modelling sports from its intrinsic challenges to the benefits it can provide to players, clubs, broadcasters, and companies operating in the sports business.

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