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Imprecise Bayesian Neural Networks

19 July 2023
2:30 pm
San Francesco Complex - Cappella Guinigi

Uncertainty quantification and robustness to distribution shifts are important goals in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Although Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) allow for uncertainty in the predictions to be assessed, different sources of uncertainty are indistinguishable. We present imprecise Bayesian neural networks (IBNNs); they generalize and overcome some of the drawbacks of standard BNNs. These latter are trained using a single prior and likelihood distributions, whereas IBNNs are trained using credal prior and likelihood sets. They allow us to distinguish between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and to quantify them. In addition, IBNNs are robust in the sense of Bayesian sensitivity analysis, and are more robust than BNNs to distribution shift. They can also be used to compute sets of outcomes that enjoy PAC-like properties. We apply IBNNs to two case studies. One, to model blood glucose and insulin dynamics for artificial pancreas control, and two, for motion prediction in autonomous driving scenarios. We show that IBNNs perform better when compared to an ensemble of BNNs benchmark.

 

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relatore: 
Michele Caprio, University of Pennsylvania
Units: 
SYSMA